Nvidia cuts OpenAI guarantee as Anthropic clouds AI bubble fears

Nvidia and OpenAI are nearing a data center deal, but Nvidia would initially guarantee just under $120 billion instead of the earlier $250 billion plan. At the same time, Anthropic's revenue surge gives the AI bubble debate a more complicated picture.

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This is mainly a business and infrastructure financing update, with only a mild lean toward greater AI scale and power.

Nvidia cuts OpenAI guarantee as Anthropic clouds AI bubble fears

Nvidia's planned support for OpenAI's data center expansion is getting smaller at the starting line, even as another major AI company is reporting numbers that point to fast-growing demand. The result is a more complicated moment for the AI market: caution on infrastructure risk on one side, and sharply rising AI revenue on the other.

Nvidia pulls back on the first phase

Nvidia and OpenAI are close to a data center deal, but the initial guarantee is no longer as large as originally planned. Instead of backing $250 billion, Nvidia would initially guarantee just under $120 billion, according to the source article's account of reporting by the Wall Street Journal.

The reason is investor pressure. Investors pushed back because they were concerned about Nvidia's risk exposure. That matters because Nvidia has been one of the most important companies tied to the AI boom, and its willingness to absorb risk is watched closely by the market.

The guarantee would cover the first construction phase. That phase would deliver about five gigawatts of capacity. OpenAI is separately negotiating a lease for the full 10-gigawatt project, which is being developed by SB Energy, a SoftBank subsidiary.

The data center guarantee is not the only financing discussion around OpenAI. Nvidia is also in talks over separate financing for OpenAI's chip purchases worth up to $350 billion. Taken together, the negotiations show how closely AI services, chip supply, and data center capacity are linked.

Why the smaller guarantee matters

The reduced guarantee gives critics of the AI boom a new point to examine. If Nvidia is cutting back its initial exposure after investor pressure, some observers may see that as evidence that even leading beneficiaries of AI growth are becoming more careful.

That does not prove that demand is weak. It does show that the financing behind AI infrastructure is being scrutinized. Large data center projects require confidence not only in current demand, but also in future use, future revenue, and the ability of AI companies to keep growing into the capacity being built for them.

The key issue is not simply whether AI is popular. The question is whether the scale of spending, leasing, financing, and construction can be justified by the revenue that AI companies generate over time. Nvidia's smaller initial guarantee makes that question harder to ignore.

Anthropic points in the other direction

Anthropic's reported numbers complicate a simple AI bubble narrative. The company's revenue more than doubled in a single quarter, rising from $4.73 billion in Q1 to over $11.5 billion in Q2. The source article says that was a 14x increase year over year, according to Reuters.

People familiar with Anthropic's finances say the company projects revenue of roughly $190 billion to $200 billion for 2028. That is far above the annual run rate of about $45 billion the company shared in May.

Anthropic also says it grew revenue by more than 10x in each of the three years leading up to early 2026. If those figures continue to hold up, they suggest that proprietary AI services are still seeing strong demand.

That growth is notable because the source article also points to political headwinds and growing competition from China. In other words, Anthropic's numbers are being discussed in a market where enthusiasm is high, but pressure is also rising.

The market signal is mixed

The clearest takeaway is that the AI market is not sending one clean signal. Nvidia's smaller OpenAI guarantee suggests a more cautious approach to infrastructure risk. Anthropic's revenue growth suggests continued demand for advanced AI services.

Those two facts can exist at the same time. A company can grow quickly while investors still question whether the infrastructure commitments around the sector are becoming too large. The debate is not only about whether AI tools are useful; it is also about whether the financial commitments around them are balanced.

Several facts now sit side by side:

  • Nvidia would initially guarantee just under $120 billion instead of the originally planned $250 billion.
  • The first construction phase would deliver about five gigawatts of capacity.
  • OpenAI is negotiating a lease for the full 10-gigawatt project developed by SB Energy.
  • Nvidia is also discussing financing for OpenAI chip purchases worth up to $350 billion.
  • Anthropic's revenue rose from $4.73 billion in Q1 to over $11.5 billion in Q2.

Anthropic reportedly plans to go public at a valuation near $1 trillion in late September or early October. At the same time, financial services firm Ramp recently measured a slight flattening in demand for Anthropic tokens among its business customers.

That final detail is important because it keeps the picture from becoming too simple. Rapid revenue growth can coexist with signs that some demand curves are changing. For investors, builders, and customers watching AI, the story is no longer just acceleration. It is acceleration under closer financial scrutiny.