Google’s AI Overviews are becoming a central test case for the future of search. New analysis from Ahrefs suggests that when AI-generated answers appear above traditional links, the first organic result receives far fewer clicks than it otherwise would.
The finding matters because search traffic is not just a visibility metric for publishers, brands, and independent creators. It is often the path by which readers find the original web pages that supply the information search engines summarize.
What Ahrefs Found
Ahrefs analyzed 300,000 search queries, with attention on 150,000 keywords both with and without AI Overviews. The data came directly from Google Search Console, according to the source article.
The central result is sharp: the click-through rate for the first organic result dropped by 34.5% after the introduction of AI Overviews. The study focused almost entirely on informational searches, which aligns with Ahrefs’ observation that 99.2% of searches that trigger AI Overviews fall into that category.
The comparison also shows how much the search page changed over time. In March 2024, before the U.S. release of AI Overviews, the average desktop click-through rate for the first result was 0.073. One year later, it had fallen to 0.026.
Ahrefs estimated that, without AI Overviews, the expected click-through rate would have been roughly 0.040. Against that estimate, the first organic listing saw the 34.5% decline in visibility reported by the analysis.
Why Informational Searches Are Exposed
Informational searches are especially important in this debate because they are the kind of query where a user often wants an explanation, a definition, a comparison, or a quick answer. AI Overviews are built to respond to that pattern by presenting a generated summary directly on the results page.
That creates a different user journey. Instead of scanning blue links and choosing a source, a user may first read the AI-generated answer. If that answer seems complete enough, the user may have less reason to click through to the site that ranked first organically.
The Ahrefs numbers do not describe every possible search behavior. They do, however, indicate a meaningful change for the most valuable position in traditional search results: the top organic listing. If the first result loses clicks, lower results may face an even harder fight for attention, though the source data here specifically centers on the first organic result.
The Tension With Google’s Claims
The findings directly challenge Google’s earlier argument that AI-powered answers could help users engage more with web content. Google executives have previously argued that these answers might improve click rates.
Ahrefs’ analysis points in the opposite direction. Ryan Law, Ahrefs’ Content Marketing Director, expects click rates to keep declining. The source article also notes that other studies have reached similar conclusions, in some cases with more dramatic results.
The disagreement is not a minor measurement dispute for the publishing economy. If AI Overviews reduce clicks while drawing from web content, then the value exchange behind search becomes harder to defend for websites that depend on visitors arriving at their pages.
For publishers, the issue is not only whether a page appears somewhere in the results. It is whether visibility still turns into direct audience contact. A cited or summarized page may be present in the background while the user’s attention stays with the platform interface.
AI Mode Points to a Bigger Shift
Google is also testing a more aggressive redesign called "AI Mode." According to the source article, this interface would move away from classic search results and guide users into a dialog-driven exchange with AI-generated answers.
That would push search further from a list of links and closer to a mediated conversation. In such a model, the platform does more than rank pages. It shapes the answer, controls the flow, and decides what gets shown, cited, or ignored.
Other companies, including OpenAI and Perplexity, are pursuing systems that draw information from the web and generate answers as needed. The broader direction is clear from the source: AI-mediated search is not limited to one company or one interface experiment.
For the open web, the risk is structural. Websites may lose more than traffic; they may lose the direct relationship with users who previously arrived through search, read original pages, and moved through links across the web.
What This Means for Publishers and Creators
The implications are difficult for anyone who produces web content. If AI systems become the main layer between users and information, publishers and creators may have to adapt to platform rules just to reach an audience.
That changes the role of the original article, guide, or analysis. Content may still help power AI answers, but the user interaction may happen inside a closed platform rather than on the site that created or hosted the material.
The source article frames this as pressure on the web’s original model: a network of accessible, interlinked pages. AI Overviews and similar tools may make answers faster for users, but Ahrefs’ data suggests that speed can come with a direct cost to the sites that rank at the top of search.
For now, the clearest takeaway is that AI Overviews are not just a search feature. They are a change in how attention is distributed. If the top organic result can lose 34.5% of its click-through rate in the context measured by Ahrefs, the economics of visibility on the web are entering a more uncertain phase.